SST Patterns of New England

This report seeks to showcase how different areas in New England are warming in the larger context of the rest of the world and specific features of 2021.

The main focal areas are the Northeastern United States’ Continental Shelf, the Gulf of Maine, the Scotian Shelf, and the Bay of Fundy.

These are then compared to the warming rates of the world’s large marine ecosystems to place their trends among areas across the globe.

Northeastern US Focal Regions

Each of the focal regions have been added to the {gmRi} package and can have their shapefile locations and temperature histories looked up with gmRi::get_timeseries_paths()

Focal Region Map

For a visual, these are the areas we’ll be looking at:

Loading Timeseries

Warming Rates

Celsius

Annual Change in Sea Surface Temperature
Data from Years 1982-2020, Units: Celsius
Region Annual Change in Temperature
Global Oceans 0.013
Northeastern U.S. Shelf 0.036
Long Island Sound 0.048
Gulf of Maine 0.041
Scotian Shelf 0.039
Bay of Fundy 0.064
Data Source: NOAA OISSTv2 Daily Sea Surface Temperature Data.
Reference Climatolgy Period: 1982-2011.

Fahrenheit

Annual Change in Sea Surface Temperature
Data from Years 1982-2020, Units: Fahrenheit
Region Annual Change in Temperature
Global Oceans 0.024
Northeastern U.S. Shelf 0.066
Long Island Sound 0.087
Gulf of Maine 0.073
Scotian Shelf 0.071
Bay of Fundy 0.116
Data Source: NOAA OISSTv2 Daily Sea Surface Temperature Data.
Reference Climatolgy Period: 1982-2011.

Monthly Anomalies

Celsius

Average Temperature Anomalies - 2021
Degrees Celsius Above Normal
Region Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Global Oceans 0.24 0.25 0.28 0.30 0.30 0.31
Northeastern U.S. Shelf 1.27 0.96 1.03 1.04 1.54 2.00
Long Island Sound 0.39 0.61 0.19 1.01 2.40 2.49
Gulf of Maine 1.80 1.58 1.03 1.23 1.78 2.60
Scotian Shelf 1.93 1.11 0.46 0.40 1.10 1.28
Bay of Fundy 3.09 2.76 2.30 2.57 3.32 2.78
Data Source: NOAA OISSTv2 Daily Sea Surface Temperature Data.
Reference Climatolgy Period: 1982-2011.

Fahrenheit

Average Temperature Anomalies - 2021
Degrees Fahrenheit Above Normal
Region Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Global Oceans 0.43 0.46 0.51 0.54 0.55 0.55
Northeastern U.S. Shelf 2.28 1.73 1.85 1.87 2.77 3.59
Long Island Sound 0.70 1.10 0.35 1.81 4.32 4.48
Gulf of Maine 3.23 2.84 1.85 2.21 3.21 4.68
Scotian Shelf 3.47 2.00 0.82 0.73 1.98 2.31
Bay of Fundy 5.56 4.96 4.13 4.63 5.98 5.00
Data Source: NOAA OISSTv2 Daily Sea Surface Temperature Data.
Reference Climatolgy Period: 1982-2011.

Recorded Temperature Increases

Celsius

Change in Annual Temperature
1982 to 2021
Region 1982 Temp 2020 Temp Temp Change Units
Global Oceans 13.44 13.96 0.52 Celsius
Northeastern U.S. Shelf 11.60 13.16 1.56 Celsius
Long Island Sound 10.26 13.51 3.25 Celsius
Gulf of Maine 9.91 11.35 1.44 Celsius
Scotian Shelf 7.28 8.28 1.00 Celsius
Bay of Fundy 6.73 9.10 2.37 Celsius
Data Source: NOAA OISSTv2 Daily Sea Surface Temperature Data.

Fahrenheit

Change in Annual Temperature
1982 to 2021
Region 1982 Temp 2020 Temp Temp Change Units
Global Oceans 56.18 57.12 0.94 Fahrenheit
Northeastern U.S. Shelf 52.87 55.69 2.82 Fahrenheit
Long Island Sound 50.47 56.31 5.84 Fahrenheit
Gulf of Maine 49.84 52.43 2.59 Fahrenheit
Scotian Shelf 45.10 46.91 1.81 Fahrenheit
Bay of Fundy 44.12 48.38 4.26 Fahrenheit
Data Source: NOAA OISSTv2 Daily Sea Surface Temperature Data.

Warming Rankings

Ranking Warming Across Large Marine Ecosystems
Region Warming Rank Warming Rate C Warming Rate F
Bay Of Fundy 1 0.064 0.116
Long Island Sound 2 0.048 0.087
Baltic Sea 3 0.047 0.084
Black Sea 4 0.046 0.082
Gulf Of Maine 5 0.041 0.073
Iceland Shelf And Sea 6 0.040 0.072
Scotian Shelf 7 0.039 0.071
Northeast Us Continental Shelf 8 0.036 0.066
North Sea 9 0.036 0.064
Norwegian Sea 10 0.033 0.060
Mediterranean Sea 11 0.031 0.055
West Bering Sea 12 0.030 0.055
Sea Of Japan 13 0.029 0.052
Data Source: NOAA OISSTv2 Daily Sea Surface Temperature Data.
Gulf of Maine, Long Island Sound, and Bay of fundy not true LME's

2020 in the Gulf of Maine

August of 2020 the Gulf of Maine experienced its warmest temperatures on record. This section digs into when that was and how hot it was at that time.

2021 in the Gulf of Maine

A marine heatwave is defined a when seawater temperatures exceed a seasonally-varying threshold (usually the 90th percentile) for at least 5 consecutive days. Successive heatwaves with gaps of 2 days or less are considered part of the same event.

Gulf of Maine Heatwave Record

Gulf of Maine 2021 Highlights

2021, particularly mid-May was an exceptionally hot time for the Gulf of Maine. Here is how the average temperature and anomaly strength compares across other years in the record.

Why flag 2012? In many ways 2012 was an exceptionally hot year, maintaining temperatures above marine heatwave threshold for nearly the entire year. For comparison purposes 2012 has also been flagged as it is the hottest year on recent record.

This section seeks to place the monthly temperatures in the context of previous years for the purpose of answering:

  • Is this the hottest month on record?
  • If not, when was it hotter?
  • If so, when was the runner up?
  • Top 5?

Summary Prep

Average Temperature

The average monthly temperature is fairly straightforward, and is useful for grounding these metrics in physical units rather than “anomalies”.

Average Anomaly

The average daily anomaly sets the benchmark for how far from the climate average a particular month is.

Anomaly Strength

Peak daily anomalies are indicative of acute thermal stress and may put species over their thermal stress limits if they are unable move/adapt to avoid/cope with them.

Smallest Anomaly

The smallest or lowest anomaly temperature is a useful indication of temperature relief, or a break from thermal stress. A high minimum anomaly value is indicative that even “troughs” in temperature may still be stressful.

Total Temperature Distance

The additive total of daily anomalies is a proxy that tracks the excess amount of temperature in the system.

2021 in New England

Maps

World

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Northeastern US Shelf

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Gulf of Maine

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Scotian Shelf

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Bay of Fundy

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Disclaimers

All data views are temporary unless noted otherwise. Data for June 2021 is currently preliminary data, and may change as QA/QC procedures take place.

 

A work by Adam A. Kemberling

Akemberling@gmri.org